Saturday, September 8, 2007

Saturday Wrap Up

My oh my what a day!

Despite giving up a good deal of the day to football, I did get quite a but done around the house. I know the house updates aren't the most thrilling, but the outside is starting to undergo some significant changes. I stripped the old cedar shake off of the garage and the lower half of the house (well half way around the lower half of the house). By the end of the day Monday we should have it all re-sided. Check back later this week for pictures :)

On to football!!

I am not sure there is a whole lot I can say about the Duck game that hasn't already been said, or that won't be said by some news outlet with 100,000 times the readership I have. Still, since I like hearing the sound of my own voice (or keyboard, as it were) I will mention a few key points.

- I think Chip Kelly has the offense on the right track. They may have left as many as 24 points off the board today, but I am not seeing the red zone futility of last year.

- I don't know if it was just Dixon maturing, or if Kelly has worked with him, but DD is throwing a very nice long ball at the moment.

- The Oregon defense is still a big question mark in my opinion. Yes, this week they looked much much better, but there still seems to be trouble stopping the run. Looked much better against the pass. r

- Special teams are looking better each week. I don't know if it was noticed by many, but early in the 1st half, Oregon even tried to steal a kick off back with a high pooch to the sideline. If it hadn't bounced out of bounds it would have been real close to Oregon ball again.

- Its a lot of fun to see the Ducks on ESPN's Top 10 twice in a single night (both with #1 and #10)

There has been a good bit of a shake up in the rest of the Top 25 this week too. I would look for Oregon to enter the Top 25 polls this week. I would say somewhere between 21 and 25, most likely at 24.

Next up Fresno State. They aren't the giant killers they used to be, but it will be a tough game nonetheless.

Friday, September 7, 2007

As Requested

Rip Tatermen (does he need a new handle with the new last name?) has asked my thoughts headed into the Oregon Michigan game. And since I am sitting here on a Friday night with nothing better to do, I figured "Why not?"

Perhaps in the future I will try and get posts of this nature up on Wed. or Thu. night so you all actually have a chance to read and comment. Anyway, on the real post:

I don't think anyone really knows what to expect out of Michigan tomorrow. My best guess is that they will come out looking for redemption. They are a veteran group with a lot of talent. That said, I haven't seen anything suggesting that they have learned to stop a spread attack with a dual threat QB. If they were going to find a defensive scheme that works against the spread, you would think they would have done so over the summer.

So, based on what we saw of Oregon last week, and what I think its fair to expect of Michigan, I get the feeling this is going to be an old fashioned shootout. Neither team looks strong on the defensive side of the ball, and I think both can put up a lot of points. It could come down to who has the ball last (cliche, I know, but this one really looks like that). I am hoping that Michigan's general lack of misdirection will help the Oregon defense, but I don't think it will help that much.

Players that will have big games:

Oregon:
1) Dixon (has to be good for Oregon to have a chance)
2) Stewart (Michigan's lateral speed on defense will limit JJ's effectiveness, but the power of Stewart will be huge)
3) Chung, Ward, Thurmond III (If the DB's are strong enough, we may be able to slow the run)


Michigan:
1) Mike Hart

I don't think Henne or Manningham have big days. If they do, Oregon is in a world of hurt.

Final Prediction:

Lots of points, if Oregon can force a turnover or two, they can get pull off the win. 45-42 Oregon.

Sunday, September 2, 2007

Oregon vs. Houston Report (and More)

I have shiny new wireless router, I am relaxed out in bed, I have a Mountain Dew near at hand, and Clapton on my headphones. Its time to get my blog on.

So I am just recently back home after a trip to the wonderful land of Eugene. I don't get back down there often enough, but that should change for at least the next few months (even if it is just for the football games). Paul, as usual, was gracious enough to play host and make sure I had a fantastic time. I am linking his blog there in the hopes that he actually posts something. Do it you drunk, lazy jack-ass!

Seriously though I had a great time. I got into Eugene around 9:30 and was greeted at my car with a big ol' hug. Of course, I was so excited to see him I locked my keys in my car. I didn't even realize it until Saturday morning when I was looking for my sunglasses. Paul, Jess, Josh and I got some dinner at the Steelhead and then went to the Starlight Lounge (sans Jess) for some honest drinking. If you happen to be in Eugene, and you are looking for a low key place that pours absurdly strong cocktails, give it a shot. It's about a block from where Cafe' Paradisio used to sit (now Jameson's Meat Market (aka Bar)). Saturday morning we woke up and rolled out for some tailgating. We found 2 of the 3 we were looking for and still made it to our seats for the pre-game video. Sadly, I think we missed the weather forecast. I will talk a bit about the game below. Spent the rest of the weekend just hanging around, crashing birthday parties, etc.

So, the game. The first half was every bit as lackluster as you have probably heard. The defense made some clutch plays, but the offense couldn't capitalize. That left the defense on the field for way too long and really started to expose some of its holes. I knew coming in the front seven was questionable. I am honestly quite nervous about facing any solid rushing team. And most of the good teams Oregon plays this year are running schools. The inability to stop the run, or sustain an effective pass rush left the secondary flapping in the wind. They had to sit in too many soft zones to deal with all the time the Houston QB had to through. Like so many Alliotti run defenses, they could look great on first and second down, but Houston converted way too many third downs. I am hoping (and it is more like a slim glimmer than any real hope) that facing a more traditional running attack may help. Houston runs a pretty unique version of the spread and I think that may have been amplifying Oregon's problems. I guess we will see how they fair against Michigan.

I am not sure that Oregon's defense even got better in the second half. I think it was more that the offense kept them off the field a little better. When they were able to get their breath they showed a little stronger. The offense was clearly better in the second half. Dixon (for the most part) made better decisions this year than last. He still tries to the force the ball into too many small windows. And he still has trouble getting back across the field in his reads. On one play in particular, he took the snap, saw the blind (and weak) side corner blitz and made a good move to buy time and dump it off to J. Johnson for a solid game. But had he made that same escape, set up and looked back across the field he would have seen J. Williams 1 on 1 with the weak side safety. Easily could have been a TD. You can't call it a mistake, but it could have been a more successful play. He did make some very good decisions to tuck and run. And despite what the people near me thought, I like him getting what he can and getting out of bounds... with his frame, he needs to limit the contact he takes.

Alright, if anyone who couldn't see the game has any questions, feel free to ask. Thats about all I have to say. Here is a look at where we are on the house though. Things should pick up and start moving quick again here pretty soon.

Friday, August 24, 2007

Thoughts on Belloti (Part 1)

I have been asked to provide my thoughts on whether Mike Bellotti is "good coach." As I said at the time (see comments to the last post) this is a complicated question. Before we can even start to answer the question, we need to decide what a good football coach is and what it is not, or even more accuratly what a good college football coach is and is not. And I think that distinction is an important one. Coaching in college has different requirements, demands and expectations than coaching in high-school or the NFL.

(Note: This post is a little long. I have decided to insert my conclusion to date here. My opinion is that Belloti is pretty good coach. There may be better ones out there, but not many. And not many that could do what he has done in Eugene. He may frustrate me and other fans at times, but before the Brooks/Belloti era a bowl game was cause for celebration in the streets.)

I suppose the simplistic route is to say that a good coach wins games. But I really do think that is too simplistic. Even good coaches will have down seasons. Even the best coaches have to go through rebuilding years and periods. So I think in evaluating how good a coach is we need to look not only at winning games but at some other statistics. Moreover, since this is still college we are talking about I think it is important to pay attention to how the team itself conducts itself. Finally, to the extent that the coach and the team is an extension and a reflection on the university I think that any NCAA disciplinary record should weigh against the coach. Alright, now that we have at least a rough idea of what to look at, lets dig in:

Mike Bellotti is heading into his 12th season as U of O's head coach. While we could look at that whole chunk of time in evaluating his performance few other coaches have been at thier possitions that long, making any comparisons difficult. With that in mind I will, for the most part, be looking at what he has done in the last 7 years.

Regular Season Winning Percentage:

* = Bowl Game Played
**= Bowl Game Won

2000-01: 9-2**
2001-02: 10-1**
2002-03: 7-5*
2003-04: 8-4*
2004-05: 5-6
2005-06: 10-1*
2006-07: 7-5*

Total: 56-24 = .700 Winning Percentage.

Comparison Winning Percentages (not counting bowls):

Pete Carrol: 61-10 = .889 (6 seasons only)
Lloyd Carr: 62-18 = .775 (last 7 seasons) (career @ .758)
Bob Stoops: 75-14 = .842
Joe Pa: 44-37 = .543 (last 7 seasons) (career @ .745)
Phil Fulmer: 61-27 = .670 (last 7 seasons) (May include bowl wins)
Dirk Koetter: 39-31 = .557 (6 seasons only)
Glen Mason (Minn): 45-35 = .563 (last 7 seasons)

In choosing comparison coaches I have tried to do a couple of things. First, each of the coaches is, or was (Koetter having been recently fired) at the same school for the duration of the comparison period. Except for Koetter and Mason the coaches chosen are widely regarded as some of the best college coaches currently coaching. Koetter and Mason where choosen because the situation in which they coach is similar in a lot of ways to that at the University of Oregon. U of O probably provides better facilities, but all three coach at state schools in states that offer little in the way of in state talent; and all three coach at schools that are not traditionally football power programs. Fans of the program like to see Oregon as on its way to the upper echelon, but the other schools have been at the top of the college football consciousness for years.

So, what does this tell us? It would seem to indicate that Belloti wins a good percentage of games given the situation he is coaching in. One other thing it is important to note. Both Pete Carrol and Bob Stoops (the two with the highest winning percentage on that list) have both been head coach of their programs when the NCAA investigators came knocking. So far Carrol has stayed pretty clean, but Oklahoma (Stoops’ school) recently had the entirety of its 2005-06 season wiped from the books for NCAA violations. For now at least, the U of O has stayed pretty clear of NCAA violations.

There is more information I would like to have brought to bear. I would like to look at the offensive and defensive production under Belloti and at other programs. I would also like to see how the Oregon recruiting classes and NFL players rate in compared to other programs. It seems to me that if Belloti were winning substantially more (or fewer) games than would be expected based on the recruits that come in and the players the NFL takes, that would give a pretty clear look as to how his coaching actually effects the outcome.

Feel free to let me know what you think.

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Title Not Found

I don't have much time or energy to drop a post for you all, but I thought I would give you all a quick something.

Work is rolling along. I am starting to handle a few of the lower level felonies that role in. I had my first trip in front of the grand jury last week, and I have another one coming up this week. So that has been pretty exciting. I really didn't expect to start touching felonies for at least 6 more months if not longer. But, we have had a couple of more senior deputies leave the office, so at least until those positions are filled I will be racking up the extra experience. I seem to have a knack for finding "right place, right time" situations like these.

The house is also moving about as quick as one could hope for. The upstairs is all sheet rocked textured. I sprayed the primer on it tonight, and tomorrow the walls and ceilings will get painted. The main floor still had some trim to brush out and some cutting in to finish, but its getting close. Then its just new windows and floors to do. Once we do something that will actually show as being an improvement, I will get more pictures up.

I don't have much time for things outside of working and, well, working but thats alright for now. My mini-gut seems to be shrinking and with all this work and the lack of real food (its tough to cook when your kitchen consists of a fridge and a microwave on the floor).

Anyway, I suppose thats all I have for now. A couple of fun times coming up though. A wedding reception on Aug 26th, and a long weekend in Eugene for the Ducks home opener. So I guess I got that going for me.

Monday, July 30, 2007

House Update

A few days later then I expected it to be, but its time for an update on the project house. The sheetrock is all up on the main floor, and we should be spraying texture tomorrow. Which means we can spray primer and paint the ceilings on Wednesday. All in all it looks like Sam and I will be moving on the weekend, more or less. I would like to get most of the stuff moved before the weekend actually, so I can take a load of debris to the dump... I didn't get a picture of the debris pile, but it is not small.

Anyway, here are the pictures.

Wednesday, July 25, 2007

Mostly About the New House

As the title says, this post will be mostly about what has been going on with the new house. But first, I have a question for the peanut gallery (that would be you): If you were, in some way, acquire a cast-iron skillet, and said skillet claimed to be "Pre-Cured" wouldn't you be surprised to learn (from the instructions included with the skillet) that before using the nice new skillet you needed to cure it?

I have been a home owner for a few hours over a week now. If you are a reader here you would have seen the pictures I took down below. Not much of what those pictures show of the interior is accurate anymore, at least not the main floor. The living room, dining room and back bedroom all have new sheet-rock hung, and most of the kitchen. We ripped down the acoustic tile ceiling in the bathroom, framed it in the right way, and have new rock up there too. Dad and I took care of the bug rot in the garage and we had a good friend make sure the wiring was up to snuff. All in all this is the best I really could have hoped for on this remodel. But, that doesn't mean there haven't been some hiccups. One of the more amusing stories follows below.

So last Sunday we are all working hard trying to get things done and make sure that Bob and his step-son Donny (they were there to make sure the electrical was all ok) finished what we had them out there to do. Around 11:30 we sent Mom and Sam to get lunch for everyone. During the time they were gone a lot of things started going wrong. After Dad and I screwed up trying to sister a new rafter into the garage roof I mentioned how shit tends to start going wrong around lunch time.

About that time Bob comes out bitching about having screwed up something or another and it was decided that it was beer time (for Dad and Bob at least). About that time I heard a yelp come from the house where Donny was still working. But when we asked if he was ok, he said he was. Just a few minutes later he comes walking out into the garage where the three of us are and he is rubbing his head. I swear it just looked like he just had his hair parted. But as he sat down I realized it was more than just a part in his hair. It turns out Donny was trying to get a whole drilled with one of Bob's specialty bits (they are in 4-6 foot long range) and he was having trouble. So he was really leaning into it and trying to get good downward force ton the bit. Then, next thing he knows his hair catches around the bit and the drill runs right down to his scalp (this, presumably, is when we heard him yelp). So, if you can imagine it, there was Donny, with the drill bit stuck in his hair, the drill well above his head, trying to thumb around and find reverse so he could free himself. I swear, the 2.5 inch groove down the side of Donny's head was so clean and neat it looked like he did with a razor. Mean though it may be, seeing Donny sit on the back of that truck pulling out little curls of his hair was far and away the funniest thing I have seen in a long long time.

Thursday, July 19, 2007

Past Nastification

This post doesn't actually deal with any past nastifications... mine or any one else. I was just watching an old episode of Futurama, and I love that phrase.


So, a little news. I closed on the house yesterday. So I am now the proud owner of a run down 4 bedroom house on the South Slope of Astoria. The downside to this whole thing is I have to cancel the weekend I was planning on spending in Portland for my birthday. Ah well, such is life. The upside is, I should get some decent blog material out of the deal.

I know I mentioned last time that I was thinking about a post about work, it hasn't happened yet (obviously). I just haven't felt much like writing when I get home lately. Mostly I was thinking about how it felt different to sentence a person that was still professing their innocence then someone that has admitted their guilt (or at least stops contesting it). Early last week was the sentencing of the first defendant I have convicted at a trial (other then traffic violations). Heading into it, I really wasn't sure how I would feel. Obviously I believed that he was guilty, but to have him continue to profess his innocence was weird. On one hand it seemed quite clear that he was lying. But going in, I didn't know if the soft side of me (or less cynical side) wouldn't feel a little bad for him. I know I still have a soft side (I tend to be a little soft when it comes to making plea deals), but I really didn't feel had for this guy. I am sure I will have more to say about things like this some other time. For now, its getting late and I need some sleep.

Take care all.

Sunday, July 8, 2007

The Post With No Name

When I opened up this window there were several things I wanted to blog about. Now that I am here, I seem to be having a hard time getting anything down in words. I have been feeling a little off lately. My 26th birthday is coming up in just a couple of weeks. I think that might have something to do with it. For some reason 26 feels different than any birthday so far. Twenty five was my first birthday being out of school. But it didn't really feel like it. I spent most of last summer prepping for the bar, and then took the bar just 2 days after my birthday. Maybe thats it... maybe I am just starting to feel... well not old. I know I am not actually old. But I am not exactly young anymore either. Maybe I will come back to this topic a little later. It wasn't really what I was planning on writing anyway.

One thing I had wanted to say, and I know that nobody reading this (at least no one that I know is reading this) golfs, but I wanted to say: I played a heck of a round today. The thing is, it didn't seem like it was that different from a lot of the other rounds of golf I have played. Most days I shoot between 82 and 85. Today I shout 78. But it didn't feel 4 to 7 shots better. I hit my irons a little better then usual. That seems to be the main difference. For the most part I made the 6 foot putts. Maybe that is where the difference was. It just seems strange that the best round I have shot in almost a year felt so ho-hum.

I should have something to say about work and the like tomorrow.

Last, but not least, I thought you all might like to get a look at the house I am buying. So, here you go:



As you can see, it will be a busy couple of months getting it in shape. But I am looking forward to it. I must be nuts.

Monday, July 2, 2007

Short grumbly update

Ok, I know I haven't posted in a while. And lo, though there are a few things I could update you on this is not that time. I am really just here to drop two tidbits.

1) I made an offer on a house out here in Astoria. We shall see if the offer is accepted. If it is, you can look forward to lots of pictures and construction updates.

2) I just got back from an advanced showing of Transformers. Don't worry, I won't toss any spoilers out here. I will just say two things. The first 1:45, give or take, was pretty darn good*. Unfortunately I can't even give that much of a comment on the rest of the movie. The damn, podunk movie theater here in town loaded the second reel (yes, the theater still uses reels, no digital theaters out here) upside down, and backwards. It made for an interesting watch until it became clear they had no intention of rectifying the problem. They were nice enough to give us free passes at least. (Note: This would be why I am grumbling softly under my breath and about to commence shuffling around the living room.)

*I should qualify my statement that this movie is enjoyable with a couple brief sentiments:

1) I love going to the movies... this means my standards a little lower then some of my friends.
2) I went in expecting very little from this movie, that tends to make it easier to enjoy these movies.
3) I am a Transformers fan. But I am not a fanboy. I don't know the comics, I don't know the backstory. I grew up playing with the toys and watching the cartoon. In fact the very first movie I remember ever seeing in the theater was Transformers (of which I have incredibly fond memories). I believe this may have made me predisposed to the powerful JuJu of giant space robots.

All right. I will try to get a more complete update up when I have time.