My oh my!
From Thursday on its just been unbelievable. The football, the work on the house. Fantastic!
I will mostly be talking about football here. But there is a slide show of the advances on the house below. Now, on to the football!
Number 2 looses again. LSU almost throws away the game against Auburn. How do you not kick the field goal at that point?!? Oklahoma struggles, Kentucky goes down, and so do the Cocks. But perhaps most important, Oregon jumps 5 spots in all the polls and controls its own destiny in the Pac-10.
Speaking of Oregon, what a game by the O-line. I have it on the DVR for whenever I want to watch it again this week. The offensive side of the ball was pure domination. The defensive side... well, I think Allioti was too stubborn on his game plan of blitzing Locker.
Also speaking of Oregon, feel free to start envying me and my tickets to the USC game. It is apparently the first meeting of Top 10 teams in Autzen. I actually know someone that has season tickets and won't be at the game. (He will be in Hawaii, but for Duck's sake,wouldn't you check the schedule before buying your plane tickets!!)
Anyway, enough short paragraphs. Not a whole lot to talk about really. I am sure you all get tired of hearing about the house, so I am done for now. Here is the slide show I promised.
Monday, October 22, 2007
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Two Quick Sports Links
So, a couple of sports things to pass on.
1) Greg Oden has a blog. Quite frankly, an awesome blog. This kid is hysterical.
2) It seems many of the current Oregon players don't really understand why Washington is a hated rival of Oregon. I can understand that from some standpoint it can be a good idea to keep the team on an even keel. On the other hand, this used to be such a hated rivalry. It would be a shame for it to fade. For any of you out there not familiar with the history of this particular border war, there have been a few nice articles about it here, here and here.
I think thats about it for now. I should have more about the house in the next week or two.
1) Greg Oden has a blog. Quite frankly, an awesome blog. This kid is hysterical.
2) It seems many of the current Oregon players don't really understand why Washington is a hated rival of Oregon. I can understand that from some standpoint it can be a good idea to keep the team on an even keel. On the other hand, this used to be such a hated rivalry. It would be a shame for it to fade. For any of you out there not familiar with the history of this particular border war, there have been a few nice articles about it here, here and here.
I think thats about it for now. I should have more about the house in the next week or two.
Saturday, October 6, 2007
Ramblings
Well, it has been a while, but then I have been busy. I think of things I should talk about occasionally, but I am too tired by the time I have a chance. Tonight, however, I have the time and a little bit of energy but not much in the way of things to say.
I guess first off, I am alive and doing well, as is Sam. Now that things are in good shape on the house, she is back to looking for work. The job market isn't the best out here, but I am sure she will find something soon.
I am sitting here watching the Florida vs. LSU game and I must confese, I feel quit torn. An LSU win would likely move Oregon up in the standings whereas an LSU loss would not. And yet, I hate LSU. I don't know why, but I always have. Maybe its because Shaq went there, I don't know. Maybe its because I resent Death Valley's being so much louder and more intimidating than Autzen... Damn fans actually caused an earthquake in 1988. I guess I should look at it as a no lose situation.
This is actually the first game I have watched today. I spent most of the day on the road driving into Portland to buy bamboo flooring and kitchen cabinets. It is looking like we should be done with most of the major renovations on the house done within the next month. (As for what he have gotten done, see the sideshow at the end of the post.)
Work is going well. We had one of the two new people start last Monday, and we have another starting this Monday. While I will miss the chance to get my hands on felony work as often, it will be nice to have the help. It has been pretty absurdly busy the last few weeks.
Of the work highlights recently was my 4th jury trial. (HOLY FUCK!!! Stanford drops USC!!!)
It was 2 day DUII trial against a former chief deputy of our office (she was the defense attorney, not the defendant obviously). The facts, frankly, were weak for my case. It was the investigating officer's first trial and only his 2nd solo investigation. He didn't see her driving (we did have strong circumstantial evidence on this point), she didn't give a breath test and she had a nice big sympathy card in that she had been at friends memorial service the day of the arrest. On top of all that, the officer made an error during one of the Field Sobriety Tests (FSTs) and one of the jail deputies testified that the defendant didn't seem that intoxicated. In essence, I had two FSTs (they weren't bad, but they weren't great) and some strange behavior by the defendant. Somehow, and while I have my theories I am not sure of any of them, but somehow I won. It took the jury just about two and half hours to return a guilty verdict.
Alright, that would be all I have to say at this point I think. I will close with a couple pictures of the house.
I guess first off, I am alive and doing well, as is Sam. Now that things are in good shape on the house, she is back to looking for work. The job market isn't the best out here, but I am sure she will find something soon.
I am sitting here watching the Florida vs. LSU game and I must confese, I feel quit torn. An LSU win would likely move Oregon up in the standings whereas an LSU loss would not. And yet, I hate LSU. I don't know why, but I always have. Maybe its because Shaq went there, I don't know. Maybe its because I resent Death Valley's being so much louder and more intimidating than Autzen... Damn fans actually caused an earthquake in 1988. I guess I should look at it as a no lose situation.
This is actually the first game I have watched today. I spent most of the day on the road driving into Portland to buy bamboo flooring and kitchen cabinets. It is looking like we should be done with most of the major renovations on the house done within the next month. (As for what he have gotten done, see the sideshow at the end of the post.)
Work is going well. We had one of the two new people start last Monday, and we have another starting this Monday. While I will miss the chance to get my hands on felony work as often, it will be nice to have the help. It has been pretty absurdly busy the last few weeks.
Of the work highlights recently was my 4th jury trial. (HOLY FUCK!!! Stanford drops USC!!!)
It was 2 day DUII trial against a former chief deputy of our office (she was the defense attorney, not the defendant obviously). The facts, frankly, were weak for my case. It was the investigating officer's first trial and only his 2nd solo investigation. He didn't see her driving (we did have strong circumstantial evidence on this point), she didn't give a breath test and she had a nice big sympathy card in that she had been at friends memorial service the day of the arrest. On top of all that, the officer made an error during one of the Field Sobriety Tests (FSTs) and one of the jail deputies testified that the defendant didn't seem that intoxicated. In essence, I had two FSTs (they weren't bad, but they weren't great) and some strange behavior by the defendant. Somehow, and while I have my theories I am not sure of any of them, but somehow I won. It took the jury just about two and half hours to return a guilty verdict.
Alright, that would be all I have to say at this point I think. I will close with a couple pictures of the house.
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Something I Forgot
There was one more thing I wanted to mention to you all. Especially since I know a good many of you are all dorks. While surfing around, looking at various things I stumbled upon this. If you like Risk, Risk 2210, etc, check it out. The AI isn't great, its a little on the conservative side, but its kinda fun.
It also seems to allow for online play, although I haven't really investigated that portion yet. But... if anybody were interested, hint hint.
It also seems to allow for online play, although I haven't really investigated that portion yet. But... if anybody were interested, hint hint.
Sunday's Thoughts
So for the first time in quite I while I took most of a day off. More than that, there was nothing I had to do and nowhere I had to be. I had the whole day stretched out before me. It was a thing of beauty, a thing to be cherished.
I watched the rain come in. The first real rains of the fall have hit the coast today. There have been showers over the last month or so, and there will be dry days ahead. But today was the first honest rain of the changing season.
I also watched Accepted. I know it is by no means a great piece of American cinema. That said, it really sucked me in. A much better movie then I expected. And Maria Thayer may well be the most attractive person ever born in Boring Oregon. How a town like that turned out a woman like that is completely beyond me.
I also just watched the then of The Shadow. Well, I wasn't really watching, the TV was just on that channel while I worked on the Sunday crossword. At some point I started to think Penelope Ann Miller was quite fetching as well. Then I started to wonder if it was just because Sam has been out of town for almost a week now.
Just one last thing before I go, well two things really. Two movies to be specific. As opposed to the two mentioned above, these two should be actively sought out and watched if you haven't seen them yet.
1) Wordplay - A must if you enjoy crosswords and/or wordplay. A very well filmed documentary about crosswords and the people that do them and make them (including John Stewart).
2) The Aristocrats - Warning: this movie is quite raw. Foul in fact. But hysterical. If you can handle dirty language and subject matter, its well worth it.
All right, I am out folks. Sorry no comments on the Ducks this week, but there isn't a whole lot to say.
I watched the rain come in. The first real rains of the fall have hit the coast today. There have been showers over the last month or so, and there will be dry days ahead. But today was the first honest rain of the changing season.
I also watched Accepted. I know it is by no means a great piece of American cinema. That said, it really sucked me in. A much better movie then I expected. And Maria Thayer may well be the most attractive person ever born in Boring Oregon. How a town like that turned out a woman like that is completely beyond me.
I also just watched the then of The Shadow. Well, I wasn't really watching, the TV was just on that channel while I worked on the Sunday crossword. At some point I started to think Penelope Ann Miller was quite fetching as well. Then I started to wonder if it was just because Sam has been out of town for almost a week now.
Just one last thing before I go, well two things really. Two movies to be specific. As opposed to the two mentioned above, these two should be actively sought out and watched if you haven't seen them yet.
1) Wordplay - A must if you enjoy crosswords and/or wordplay. A very well filmed documentary about crosswords and the people that do them and make them (including John Stewart).
2) The Aristocrats - Warning: this movie is quite raw. Foul in fact. But hysterical. If you can handle dirty language and subject matter, its well worth it.
All right, I am out folks. Sorry no comments on the Ducks this week, but there isn't a whole lot to say.
Saturday, September 8, 2007
Saturday Wrap Up
My oh my what a day!
Despite giving up a good deal of the day to football, I did get quite a but done around the house. I know the house updates aren't the most thrilling, but the outside is starting to undergo some significant changes. I stripped the old cedar shake off of the garage and the lower half of the house (well half way around the lower half of the house). By the end of the day Monday we should have it all re-sided. Check back later this week for pictures :)
On to football!!
I am not sure there is a whole lot I can say about the Duck game that hasn't already been said, or that won't be said by some news outlet with 100,000 times the readership I have. Still, since I like hearing the sound of my own voice (or keyboard, as it were) I will mention a few key points.
- I think Chip Kelly has the offense on the right track. They may have left as many as 24 points off the board today, but I am not seeing the red zone futility of last year.
- I don't know if it was just Dixon maturing, or if Kelly has worked with him, but DD is throwing a very nice long ball at the moment.
- The Oregon defense is still a big question mark in my opinion. Yes, this week they looked much much better, but there still seems to be trouble stopping the run. Looked much better against the pass. r
- Special teams are looking better each week. I don't know if it was noticed by many, but early in the 1st half, Oregon even tried to steal a kick off back with a high pooch to the sideline. If it hadn't bounced out of bounds it would have been real close to Oregon ball again.
- Its a lot of fun to see the Ducks on ESPN's Top 10 twice in a single night (both with #1 and #10)
There has been a good bit of a shake up in the rest of the Top 25 this week too. I would look for Oregon to enter the Top 25 polls this week. I would say somewhere between 21 and 25, most likely at 24.
Next up Fresno State. They aren't the giant killers they used to be, but it will be a tough game nonetheless.
Despite giving up a good deal of the day to football, I did get quite a but done around the house. I know the house updates aren't the most thrilling, but the outside is starting to undergo some significant changes. I stripped the old cedar shake off of the garage and the lower half of the house (well half way around the lower half of the house). By the end of the day Monday we should have it all re-sided. Check back later this week for pictures :)
On to football!!
I am not sure there is a whole lot I can say about the Duck game that hasn't already been said, or that won't be said by some news outlet with 100,000 times the readership I have. Still, since I like hearing the sound of my own voice (or keyboard, as it were) I will mention a few key points.
- I think Chip Kelly has the offense on the right track. They may have left as many as 24 points off the board today, but I am not seeing the red zone futility of last year.
- I don't know if it was just Dixon maturing, or if Kelly has worked with him, but DD is throwing a very nice long ball at the moment.
- The Oregon defense is still a big question mark in my opinion. Yes, this week they looked much much better, but there still seems to be trouble stopping the run. Looked much better against the pass. r
- Special teams are looking better each week. I don't know if it was noticed by many, but early in the 1st half, Oregon even tried to steal a kick off back with a high pooch to the sideline. If it hadn't bounced out of bounds it would have been real close to Oregon ball again.
- Its a lot of fun to see the Ducks on ESPN's Top 10 twice in a single night (both with #1 and #10)
There has been a good bit of a shake up in the rest of the Top 25 this week too. I would look for Oregon to enter the Top 25 polls this week. I would say somewhere between 21 and 25, most likely at 24.
Next up Fresno State. They aren't the giant killers they used to be, but it will be a tough game nonetheless.
Friday, September 7, 2007
As Requested
Rip Tatermen (does he need a new handle with the new last name?) has asked my thoughts headed into the Oregon Michigan game. And since I am sitting here on a Friday night with nothing better to do, I figured "Why not?"
Perhaps in the future I will try and get posts of this nature up on Wed. or Thu. night so you all actually have a chance to read and comment. Anyway, on the real post:
I don't think anyone really knows what to expect out of Michigan tomorrow. My best guess is that they will come out looking for redemption. They are a veteran group with a lot of talent. That said, I haven't seen anything suggesting that they have learned to stop a spread attack with a dual threat QB. If they were going to find a defensive scheme that works against the spread, you would think they would have done so over the summer.
So, based on what we saw of Oregon last week, and what I think its fair to expect of Michigan, I get the feeling this is going to be an old fashioned shootout. Neither team looks strong on the defensive side of the ball, and I think both can put up a lot of points. It could come down to who has the ball last (cliche, I know, but this one really looks like that). I am hoping that Michigan's general lack of misdirection will help the Oregon defense, but I don't think it will help that much.
Players that will have big games:
Oregon:
1) Dixon (has to be good for Oregon to have a chance)
2) Stewart (Michigan's lateral speed on defense will limit JJ's effectiveness, but the power of Stewart will be huge)
3) Chung, Ward, Thurmond III (If the DB's are strong enough, we may be able to slow the run)
Michigan:
1) Mike Hart
I don't think Henne or Manningham have big days. If they do, Oregon is in a world of hurt.
Final Prediction:
Lots of points, if Oregon can force a turnover or two, they can get pull off the win. 45-42 Oregon.
Perhaps in the future I will try and get posts of this nature up on Wed. or Thu. night so you all actually have a chance to read and comment. Anyway, on the real post:
I don't think anyone really knows what to expect out of Michigan tomorrow. My best guess is that they will come out looking for redemption. They are a veteran group with a lot of talent. That said, I haven't seen anything suggesting that they have learned to stop a spread attack with a dual threat QB. If they were going to find a defensive scheme that works against the spread, you would think they would have done so over the summer.
So, based on what we saw of Oregon last week, and what I think its fair to expect of Michigan, I get the feeling this is going to be an old fashioned shootout. Neither team looks strong on the defensive side of the ball, and I think both can put up a lot of points. It could come down to who has the ball last (cliche, I know, but this one really looks like that). I am hoping that Michigan's general lack of misdirection will help the Oregon defense, but I don't think it will help that much.
Players that will have big games:
Oregon:
1) Dixon (has to be good for Oregon to have a chance)
2) Stewart (Michigan's lateral speed on defense will limit JJ's effectiveness, but the power of Stewart will be huge)
3) Chung, Ward, Thurmond III (If the DB's are strong enough, we may be able to slow the run)
Michigan:
1) Mike Hart
I don't think Henne or Manningham have big days. If they do, Oregon is in a world of hurt.
Final Prediction:
Lots of points, if Oregon can force a turnover or two, they can get pull off the win. 45-42 Oregon.
Sunday, September 2, 2007
Oregon vs. Houston Report (and More)
I have shiny new wireless router, I am relaxed out in bed, I have a Mountain Dew near at hand, and Clapton on my headphones. Its time to get my blog on.
So I am just recently back home after a trip to the wonderful land of Eugene. I don't get back down there often enough, but that should change for at least the next few months (even if it is just for the football games). Paul, as usual, was gracious enough to play host and make sure I had a fantastic time. I am linking his blog there in the hopes that he actually posts something. Do it you drunk, lazy jack-ass!
Seriously though I had a great time. I got into Eugene around 9:30 and was greeted at my car with a big ol' hug. Of course, I was so excited to see him I locked my keys in my car. I didn't even realize it until Saturday morning when I was looking for my sunglasses. Paul, Jess, Josh and I got some dinner at the Steelhead and then went to the Starlight Lounge (sans Jess) for some honest drinking. If you happen to be in Eugene, and you are looking for a low key place that pours absurdly strong cocktails, give it a shot. It's about a block from where Cafe' Paradisio used to sit (now Jameson's Meat Market (aka Bar)). Saturday morning we woke up and rolled out for some tailgating. We found 2 of the 3 we were looking for and still made it to our seats for the pre-game video. Sadly, I think we missed the weather forecast. I will talk a bit about the game below. Spent the rest of the weekend just hanging around, crashing birthday parties, etc.
So, the game. The first half was every bit as lackluster as you have probably heard. The defense made some clutch plays, but the offense couldn't capitalize. That left the defense on the field for way too long and really started to expose some of its holes. I knew coming in the front seven was questionable. I am honestly quite nervous about facing any solid rushing team. And most of the good teams Oregon plays this year are running schools. The inability to stop the run, or sustain an effective pass rush left the secondary flapping in the wind. They had to sit in too many soft zones to deal with all the time the Houston QB had to through. Like so many Alliotti run defenses, they could look great on first and second down, but Houston converted way too many third downs. I am hoping (and it is more like a slim glimmer than any real hope) that facing a more traditional running attack may help. Houston runs a pretty unique version of the spread and I think that may have been amplifying Oregon's problems. I guess we will see how they fair against Michigan.
I am not sure that Oregon's defense even got better in the second half. I think it was more that the offense kept them off the field a little better. When they were able to get their breath they showed a little stronger. The offense was clearly better in the second half. Dixon (for the most part) made better decisions this year than last. He still tries to the force the ball into too many small windows. And he still has trouble getting back across the field in his reads. On one play in particular, he took the snap, saw the blind (and weak) side corner blitz and made a good move to buy time and dump it off to J. Johnson for a solid game. But had he made that same escape, set up and looked back across the field he would have seen J. Williams 1 on 1 with the weak side safety. Easily could have been a TD. You can't call it a mistake, but it could have been a more successful play. He did make some very good decisions to tuck and run. And despite what the people near me thought, I like him getting what he can and getting out of bounds... with his frame, he needs to limit the contact he takes.
Alright, if anyone who couldn't see the game has any questions, feel free to ask. Thats about all I have to say. Here is a look at where we are on the house though. Things should pick up and start moving quick again here pretty soon.
So I am just recently back home after a trip to the wonderful land of Eugene. I don't get back down there often enough, but that should change for at least the next few months (even if it is just for the football games). Paul, as usual, was gracious enough to play host and make sure I had a fantastic time. I am linking his blog there in the hopes that he actually posts something. Do it you drunk, lazy jack-ass!
Seriously though I had a great time. I got into Eugene around 9:30 and was greeted at my car with a big ol' hug. Of course, I was so excited to see him I locked my keys in my car. I didn't even realize it until Saturday morning when I was looking for my sunglasses. Paul, Jess, Josh and I got some dinner at the Steelhead and then went to the Starlight Lounge (sans Jess) for some honest drinking. If you happen to be in Eugene, and you are looking for a low key place that pours absurdly strong cocktails, give it a shot. It's about a block from where Cafe' Paradisio used to sit (now Jameson's Meat Market (aka Bar)). Saturday morning we woke up and rolled out for some tailgating. We found 2 of the 3 we were looking for and still made it to our seats for the pre-game video. Sadly, I think we missed the weather forecast. I will talk a bit about the game below. Spent the rest of the weekend just hanging around, crashing birthday parties, etc.
So, the game. The first half was every bit as lackluster as you have probably heard. The defense made some clutch plays, but the offense couldn't capitalize. That left the defense on the field for way too long and really started to expose some of its holes. I knew coming in the front seven was questionable. I am honestly quite nervous about facing any solid rushing team. And most of the good teams Oregon plays this year are running schools. The inability to stop the run, or sustain an effective pass rush left the secondary flapping in the wind. They had to sit in too many soft zones to deal with all the time the Houston QB had to through. Like so many Alliotti run defenses, they could look great on first and second down, but Houston converted way too many third downs. I am hoping (and it is more like a slim glimmer than any real hope) that facing a more traditional running attack may help. Houston runs a pretty unique version of the spread and I think that may have been amplifying Oregon's problems. I guess we will see how they fair against Michigan.
I am not sure that Oregon's defense even got better in the second half. I think it was more that the offense kept them off the field a little better. When they were able to get their breath they showed a little stronger. The offense was clearly better in the second half. Dixon (for the most part) made better decisions this year than last. He still tries to the force the ball into too many small windows. And he still has trouble getting back across the field in his reads. On one play in particular, he took the snap, saw the blind (and weak) side corner blitz and made a good move to buy time and dump it off to J. Johnson for a solid game. But had he made that same escape, set up and looked back across the field he would have seen J. Williams 1 on 1 with the weak side safety. Easily could have been a TD. You can't call it a mistake, but it could have been a more successful play. He did make some very good decisions to tuck and run. And despite what the people near me thought, I like him getting what he can and getting out of bounds... with his frame, he needs to limit the contact he takes.
Alright, if anyone who couldn't see the game has any questions, feel free to ask. Thats about all I have to say. Here is a look at where we are on the house though. Things should pick up and start moving quick again here pretty soon.
Friday, August 24, 2007
Thoughts on Belloti (Part 1)
I have been asked to provide my thoughts on whether Mike Bellotti is "good coach." As I said at the time (see comments to the last post) this is a complicated question. Before we can even start to answer the question, we need to decide what a good football coach is and what it is not, or even more accuratly what a good college football coach is and is not. And I think that distinction is an important one. Coaching in college has different requirements, demands and expectations than coaching in high-school or the NFL.
(Note: This post is a little long. I have decided to insert my conclusion to date here. My opinion is that Belloti is pretty good coach. There may be better ones out there, but not many. And not many that could do what he has done in Eugene. He may frustrate me and other fans at times, but before the Brooks/Belloti era a bowl game was cause for celebration in the streets.)
I suppose the simplistic route is to say that a good coach wins games. But I really do think that is too simplistic. Even good coaches will have down seasons. Even the best coaches have to go through rebuilding years and periods. So I think in evaluating how good a coach is we need to look not only at winning games but at some other statistics. Moreover, since this is still college we are talking about I think it is important to pay attention to how the team itself conducts itself. Finally, to the extent that the coach and the team is an extension and a reflection on the university I think that any NCAA disciplinary record should weigh against the coach. Alright, now that we have at least a rough idea of what to look at, lets dig in:
Mike Bellotti is heading into his 12th season as U of O's head coach. While we could look at that whole chunk of time in evaluating his performance few other coaches have been at thier possitions that long, making any comparisons difficult. With that in mind I will, for the most part, be looking at what he has done in the last 7 years.
Regular Season Winning Percentage:
* = Bowl Game Played
**= Bowl Game Won
2000-01: 9-2**
2001-02: 10-1**
2002-03: 7-5*
2003-04: 8-4*
2004-05: 5-6
2005-06: 10-1*
2006-07: 7-5*
Total: 56-24 = .700 Winning Percentage.
Comparison Winning Percentages (not counting bowls):
Pete Carrol: 61-10 = .889 (6 seasons only)
Lloyd Carr: 62-18 = .775 (last 7 seasons) (career @ .758)
Bob Stoops: 75-14 = .842
Joe Pa: 44-37 = .543 (last 7 seasons) (career @ .745)
Phil Fulmer: 61-27 = .670 (last 7 seasons) (May include bowl wins)
Dirk Koetter: 39-31 = .557 (6 seasons only)
Glen Mason (Minn): 45-35 = .563 (last 7 seasons)
In choosing comparison coaches I have tried to do a couple of things. First, each of the coaches is, or was (Koetter having been recently fired) at the same school for the duration of the comparison period. Except for Koetter and Mason the coaches chosen are widely regarded as some of the best college coaches currently coaching. Koetter and Mason where choosen because the situation in which they coach is similar in a lot of ways to that at the University of Oregon. U of O probably provides better facilities, but all three coach at state schools in states that offer little in the way of in state talent; and all three coach at schools that are not traditionally football power programs. Fans of the program like to see Oregon as on its way to the upper echelon, but the other schools have been at the top of the college football consciousness for years.
So, what does this tell us? It would seem to indicate that Belloti wins a good percentage of games given the situation he is coaching in. One other thing it is important to note. Both Pete Carrol and Bob Stoops (the two with the highest winning percentage on that list) have both been head coach of their programs when the NCAA investigators came knocking. So far Carrol has stayed pretty clean, but Oklahoma (Stoops’ school) recently had the entirety of its 2005-06 season wiped from the books for NCAA violations. For now at least, the U of O has stayed pretty clear of NCAA violations.
There is more information I would like to have brought to bear. I would like to look at the offensive and defensive production under Belloti and at other programs. I would also like to see how the Oregon recruiting classes and NFL players rate in compared to other programs. It seems to me that if Belloti were winning substantially more (or fewer) games than would be expected based on the recruits that come in and the players the NFL takes, that would give a pretty clear look as to how his coaching actually effects the outcome.
Feel free to let me know what you think.
(Note: This post is a little long. I have decided to insert my conclusion to date here. My opinion is that Belloti is pretty good coach. There may be better ones out there, but not many. And not many that could do what he has done in Eugene. He may frustrate me and other fans at times, but before the Brooks/Belloti era a bowl game was cause for celebration in the streets.)
I suppose the simplistic route is to say that a good coach wins games. But I really do think that is too simplistic. Even good coaches will have down seasons. Even the best coaches have to go through rebuilding years and periods. So I think in evaluating how good a coach is we need to look not only at winning games but at some other statistics. Moreover, since this is still college we are talking about I think it is important to pay attention to how the team itself conducts itself. Finally, to the extent that the coach and the team is an extension and a reflection on the university I think that any NCAA disciplinary record should weigh against the coach. Alright, now that we have at least a rough idea of what to look at, lets dig in:
Mike Bellotti is heading into his 12th season as U of O's head coach. While we could look at that whole chunk of time in evaluating his performance few other coaches have been at thier possitions that long, making any comparisons difficult. With that in mind I will, for the most part, be looking at what he has done in the last 7 years.
Regular Season Winning Percentage:
* = Bowl Game Played
**= Bowl Game Won
2000-01: 9-2**
2001-02: 10-1**
2002-03: 7-5*
2003-04: 8-4*
2004-05: 5-6
2005-06: 10-1*
2006-07: 7-5*
Total: 56-24 = .700 Winning Percentage.
Comparison Winning Percentages (not counting bowls):
Pete Carrol: 61-10 = .889 (6 seasons only)
Lloyd Carr: 62-18 = .775 (last 7 seasons) (career @ .758)
Bob Stoops: 75-14 = .842
Joe Pa: 44-37 = .543 (last 7 seasons) (career @ .745)
Phil Fulmer: 61-27 = .670 (last 7 seasons) (May include bowl wins)
Dirk Koetter: 39-31 = .557 (6 seasons only)
Glen Mason (Minn): 45-35 = .563 (last 7 seasons)
In choosing comparison coaches I have tried to do a couple of things. First, each of the coaches is, or was (Koetter having been recently fired) at the same school for the duration of the comparison period. Except for Koetter and Mason the coaches chosen are widely regarded as some of the best college coaches currently coaching. Koetter and Mason where choosen because the situation in which they coach is similar in a lot of ways to that at the University of Oregon. U of O probably provides better facilities, but all three coach at state schools in states that offer little in the way of in state talent; and all three coach at schools that are not traditionally football power programs. Fans of the program like to see Oregon as on its way to the upper echelon, but the other schools have been at the top of the college football consciousness for years.
So, what does this tell us? It would seem to indicate that Belloti wins a good percentage of games given the situation he is coaching in. One other thing it is important to note. Both Pete Carrol and Bob Stoops (the two with the highest winning percentage on that list) have both been head coach of their programs when the NCAA investigators came knocking. So far Carrol has stayed pretty clean, but Oklahoma (Stoops’ school) recently had the entirety of its 2005-06 season wiped from the books for NCAA violations. For now at least, the U of O has stayed pretty clear of NCAA violations.
There is more information I would like to have brought to bear. I would like to look at the offensive and defensive production under Belloti and at other programs. I would also like to see how the Oregon recruiting classes and NFL players rate in compared to other programs. It seems to me that if Belloti were winning substantially more (or fewer) games than would be expected based on the recruits that come in and the players the NFL takes, that would give a pretty clear look as to how his coaching actually effects the outcome.
Feel free to let me know what you think.
Tuesday, August 14, 2007
Title Not Found
I don't have much time or energy to drop a post for you all, but I thought I would give you all a quick something.
Work is rolling along. I am starting to handle a few of the lower level felonies that role in. I had my first trip in front of the grand jury last week, and I have another one coming up this week. So that has been pretty exciting. I really didn't expect to start touching felonies for at least 6 more months if not longer. But, we have had a couple of more senior deputies leave the office, so at least until those positions are filled I will be racking up the extra experience. I seem to have a knack for finding "right place, right time" situations like these.
The house is also moving about as quick as one could hope for. The upstairs is all sheet rocked textured. I sprayed the primer on it tonight, and tomorrow the walls and ceilings will get painted. The main floor still had some trim to brush out and some cutting in to finish, but its getting close. Then its just new windows and floors to do. Once we do something that will actually show as being an improvement, I will get more pictures up.
I don't have much time for things outside of working and, well, working but thats alright for now. My mini-gut seems to be shrinking and with all this work and the lack of real food (its tough to cook when your kitchen consists of a fridge and a microwave on the floor).
Anyway, I suppose thats all I have for now. A couple of fun times coming up though. A wedding reception on Aug 26th, and a long weekend in Eugene for the Ducks home opener. So I guess I got that going for me.
Work is rolling along. I am starting to handle a few of the lower level felonies that role in. I had my first trip in front of the grand jury last week, and I have another one coming up this week. So that has been pretty exciting. I really didn't expect to start touching felonies for at least 6 more months if not longer. But, we have had a couple of more senior deputies leave the office, so at least until those positions are filled I will be racking up the extra experience. I seem to have a knack for finding "right place, right time" situations like these.
The house is also moving about as quick as one could hope for. The upstairs is all sheet rocked textured. I sprayed the primer on it tonight, and tomorrow the walls and ceilings will get painted. The main floor still had some trim to brush out and some cutting in to finish, but its getting close. Then its just new windows and floors to do. Once we do something that will actually show as being an improvement, I will get more pictures up.
I don't have much time for things outside of working and, well, working but thats alright for now. My mini-gut seems to be shrinking and with all this work and the lack of real food (its tough to cook when your kitchen consists of a fridge and a microwave on the floor).
Anyway, I suppose thats all I have for now. A couple of fun times coming up though. A wedding reception on Aug 26th, and a long weekend in Eugene for the Ducks home opener. So I guess I got that going for me.
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